Interesting week. Irish vote to sign the EU Reform Treaty also known as the Lisbon Treaty. It’s now a bit of a tightrope for the Conservatives as to whether the Poles and Czechs sign before an election in the UK. If the Conservatives win and it’s not signed then a referendum is likely in the UK. Some people think a referendum should be held anyway. The trouble with this is that the objectors are making a lot of noise but it isn’t clear if they are representative when it comes to the crunch. Personally I think there should not be a referendum on this treaty as I’ve not been convinced it makes a significant change to the sovereignty of the UK.
The IMF is looking to reform to be more representative and it has been suggested that countries like the UK might lose their seat. I guess this could also be a precursor to losing a Security Council seat as well. On the other hand the UK is the 7th biggest economy and has political and military influence that is significant both historically and from it’s position as a major member of the EU. If the G20 is symbolic of how these things run it’s a bit of an odd grouping as the 20 aren’t the biggest in any one sense so even in an economic grouping financial clout isn’t the main factor. There is nothing to suggest at the moment that the UK will cease to be in the top 10 economies for many years so how any restructuring occurs is subject to debate. Although personally I favour the EU representing Europe in duality for now but perhaps taking over from individual nations at some point. Although for me it’s complicated as I’m pro-pound, pro-EU and think David Cameron is OK but I’m not certain.
The SNP are demanding a seat in any debate of leaders that is shown in Scotland. I agree with this. It is probable that the SNP will be the biggest party in Scotland after the General Election and as such they should be given equal billing in Scotland. The Conservatives will likely get into power with a predominantly Southern England base and although this might once have seemed a non-issue, nowadays it questions the validity of the electoral process. Gordon Brown has hinted at some kind of reform but I wouldn’t like to hold my breath even if he was likely to win.
Another interesting point is that the SNP are looking to hold a referendum on Scottish Independance. It isn’t clear if they have enough power to do that at present or if they’d win. But if a Conservative government was elected by Southern England with no seats in Scotland I’d think it would strengthen the SNP. Although, as a side point, is it possible in some cases for votes to be split between SNP and Labour to give the seat to the Conservatives. So going back to the original point in this post, assuming Scotland became independant and knocked 8% off the size of the UK then it might reduce the ability to defend the seats at the IMF and UN. On the other hand the World Bank forecasts that even with a 10% reduction the UK will still be the 7th largest in 5yrs time. Although Brazil, Russia and India are on a trajectory that might change that in 10yrs, but there are so many if’s here. So the Scottish effect although significant isn’t critical for now in powerplay. Although I’d think it will have some effect.