The starting grid for the General Election is taking form. What can be expected in the region?
In 2005 the results were:
Preston – Labour – majority 9,407. Achieved 50% of the vote.
South Ribble – Labour – majority 2,184. Achieved 43% of the vote.
Ribble Valley – Conservative – majority 14,171. Achieved 52% of the vote.
Fylde – Conservative – majority 12,459. 53%.
Lancaster and Wyre – Conservative – majority 4,171. 43%.
West Lancashire – Labour – majority 6,084. 48%.
Chorley – Labour – majority 7,625. 50%.
Since October 2007 the Conservatives have been well ahead in all the major opinion polls but the lead has decreased over the last 6 months. Whether shocks are in store due to expenses and apathy, hard to say.
Some of the seats are being changed. For example Lancaster and Wyre will become Wyre and North Preston. Ribble Valley will extend into South Ribble and an element of Preston constituency south of the river. South Ribble will move south.
Assuming there will be an overall swing to the Conservatives only one constituency on the list above looks likely to change: South Ribble. According to UKPollingReport this seat is Conservative target number 50 and the boundary change is mildly advantageous to Labour.
Chorley is regarded as a bellweather seat that since 1964 has changed with the government. Yet it is 152 on the Conservative targets which would signal a comfortable C win. The boundary changes are said to be mildly advantageous to Labour according to UKPollingReport.
West Lancashire is Conservative target 134.
The Conservatives need to win an extra 117 seats to get an overall majority. On current trends 80 seats looks more likely, but it’s all to play for.