A swing of 5% nationally to the Conservatives. No Lib-Dem surge but a small swing towards them in many seats. Preston is now a red island in a sea of blue seats.
Preston had it’s own mini-surge of 2.5% to the Lib-Dems from Labour with a very low turn-out of 52% and Mark Hendrick, Labour winning with just over 48% of the vote. When you don’t live in a seat it isn’t easy to judge how effective candidates are being. It appeared that in column inches Mark Hendrick was a long way ahead of the other candidates. The Lib-Dem is a local councillor so you’d expect to hear more but from where I am it seemed quiet. The Conservative candidate similarly didn’t get a lot of inches. Whether that makes a lot of difference is hard to tell but a quiet candidate is unlikely to capture those key middle ground voters. The cost of publicity is often referred to but a strong candidate can make their own publicity.
In the seats next to Preston the results are;
The new seat of Wyre and Preston North remained strongly Conservative yet had a swing from Con to Lib-Dem of 3.9%. Ben Wallace getting 52% of the vote on a very respectable 72% turn out in a fairly large seat.
Ribble Valley which now includes Walton Le Dale remained strongly Conservative and the swing was 6.6% from Labour to Conservative. Nigel Evans gaining 50.3% of the vote on a tidy 67% turn out.
South Ribble is probably the most interesting seat in the area being the most marginal. An 8.1% swing from Labour to Conservative made it change hands to Conservative who had 45% of the vote on a 67% turn out.
Fylde remained strongly Conservative with 52% of the vote for Mark Menzies on a 66% turn out. A swing of 4.1% to the Lib-Dems from Conservative.
Another seat of interest in the area is Chorley which had previously changed hands with the election winner. This time Lindsey Hoyle kept his seat with 43% of the vote in a decent 73% turn out. A swing of 5.6% from Labour to Conservative. Lindsey Hoyle is an MP who makes himself heard locally. Same thing for Gordon Marsden in Blackpool South. Both MP’s could have fallen but perhaps their work in their locality helped.
Other seats changing hands to the Conservatives are Blackpool North, Rossendale and Darwen, Bury North, Pendle, Lancaster and Fleetwood, Morecambe and Lunesdale. With Burnley becoming Lib-Dem. A good day for the Conservatives in Lancashire but not quite good enough perhaps mirroring the national mood.
The message seems to be that we want change but not a big one. A move to the right is the only way we can go but we don’t want to go too far. Does that mean Conservative with Lib-Dem or Labour with Lib-Dem. Democratically it seems to mean the former yet the combination is less easy. It could be that a softer more progressive Conservative coupled with a Lib-Dem without its less safe policies is the best of both worlds.
Electoral Reform might be the point to watch but if National Interest is the key subject, how important is reform relative to the economy.