Category: Technology

High Speed Rail to Preston

Ben Wallace MP for Wyre and Preston North spoke in parliament on including Preston in the High Speed Rail route, HS2. To which Justine Greening replied as below.

As reported in ‘they work for you’:

Ben Wallace (Wyre and Preston North, Conservative)

I think that I am on the slow line, Mr Speaker. I warmly welcome my right hon. Friend’s announcement today about High Speed 2. As a good northern girl, she will know that the north of England does not start and stop at Leeds and Manchester. On the route map published today, it seems that High Speed 2 on the north-west line extends further north than Manchester, perhaps to what looks like Preston. Will she give serious consideration to ensuring that Preston is included in phase 2, so that Lancashire and one of the hubs of British manufacturing get direct access to the south?

Justine Greening (Economic Secretary, HM Treasury; Putney, Conservative)

I am delighted to tell my hon. Friend that places such as Preston will gain from phase 1, in terms of connectivity between the west coast main line and HS2. I am as passionate as he is about ensuring that his area has excellent railway links, and we are looking at developing the HLOS2 proposal for shorter and medium-term funding in our railways. I have no doubt that he will continue to represent his constituents’ needs to us as powerfully as he just did, and I will continue to pay very close attention to them.

Parliament debates BAE redundancies

On November 24th a debate was held in parliament on the redundancies at BAE SYSTEMS primarily at the Warton and Samlesbury plants in Lancashire and the closure of the Brough site in Yorkshire. The prime mover was David Davis, the MP for the Yorkshire seat containing the Brough site. Also Alan Johnson, the MP for Hull West.  The debate was poorly attended with only those from threatened sites turning up. These included North West MP’s: Ben Wallace, Mark Menzies, Jack Straw, Mark Hendrick, Lorraine Fullbrook Graham Jones. With  Nigel Evans sitting in as Speaker. The government was represented by Peter Luff, Parliamentary Under Secretary of State for Defence Equipment.

The main speaker was David Davis who raised points about the betrayal of a long history successful work at the Brough plant. That the Hawk still has prospects for sales and that much of it is being offered to overseas companies in ‘offset’ deals to gain more sales. Also the point was raised that BAE had made the error of selling off its commercial aircraft interests which had often taken up the slack when defence orders are slow. A plea to slow the rate of redundancies at Brough was raised.

There was also talk about the terms in the ‘yellow book’ which represents the trading agreements between government and industry. This relates to guaranteeing jobs to maintain capability and covers who pays for redundancy costs. It seems the government pays in this case. Some MP’s think BAE is exploiting this.

Others mentioned large overspends that need to be reduced and ensuring the ability to satisfy future projects.

Each MP spoke. It seemed reading the debate that very little was said that hasn’t been said a dozen times. It is perhaps unusual for redundancies at one company to secure so much time for discussion and it left me wondering what was achieved. At the end there was a resolution which might mean more in politics than it does when reading it. This says;

That this House urges BAE Systems to act to preserve the UK’s defence production skills base and, as a recipient of enormous resources over many years from the UK taxpayer, to deploy those resources in such a way as to protect the nation’s manufacturing capability.

Or it seemed;  Carry on as planned,  if what you make costs more and what you can offer is limited by inflexibility then you reduce the chance to sell it, and so could lose more jobs.

It could be argued that to preserve jobs the government should place contracts that pull work forward or create new research. In the current climate this seems unlikely.

An overview of defence as a whole could read as follows. Over the years the UK aircraft industry has consolidated to a few plants and BAE has changed from an aircraft company to one that delivers systems with a large part in the US. Also the number of projects has declined and it appears that the UK is likely to become an aircraft ‘part’ manufacturer. With UAV’s potentially creating work but it isn’t clear how that will evolve. The alternatives come with large bill. Perhaps a measure of the UK’s decline over the years coupled with increased complexity and the range of military options from tanks to submarines, UCAV’s and very expensive electronics, counter-measures, surveillance and cyber-warfare. Where to focus? Which elements to play a major part in?  Off the shelf, licence build, direct purchase? A lot to consider.  Let’s hope we can maintain a viable aircraft industry producing whole aircraft rather than a bit player. Today we might not be optimistic. Only the French put national glory and maintenance of capability on an equal pedestal to financials e.g. Renault, Airbus, TGV, Nuclear Power, Ships.

The aircraft industry has been recognised as one that generates large export earnings through products and services over long periods of time.  Aircraft also contain a wide range of sophisticated equipment that provides high technology business and employment all over the country and these items are also exported. The business fosters close relationships and partnerships with other countries of all sizes that often leads onto other business, particularly infrastructure, as well as demonstrating a capability to participate in future high technology international ventures. Investment in aircraft projects provides the likes of BAE, Rolls Royce, Martin Baker, Marconi with the foundation for their products. There is a lot to lose without care.

Read the full debate on the website ‘they work for you’.

http://www.theyworkforyou.com/debates/?id=2011-11-24a.472.1&s=speaker%3A11668#g475.0

 

BAE Systems redundancies announced

BAE Systems announced on 27th September, 3,000 potential job losses at its sites. Of the total the Preston area includes; 843 at Warton and 565 at Samlesbury, making 1,408 in the area. Worst hit of all the military aircraft sites is Brough in East Yorkshire which is to lose 899 out of a total workforce of around 1,300.  As yet no timescales for the rundown are in general circulation.

Warton and Samlesbury are hit by a slowdown in Typhoon deliveries which has been agreed with Germany, Italy and Spain. Also by a slowdown in the build up of the US led programme, the F35.

The Brough site is Hawk related and a union representative said on the BBC that Hawk work will be moved to Warton which they are going to resist. The company has stated it is negotiating ending manufacture at Brough which will leave structural testing at the site.

In the last few years there have been a number of reductions at the Preston area sites. The Jaguar and Harrier taken out of UK service. Nimrod scrapped. Some Tornados mothballed. Previously defence work has been consolidated at Warton as other sites closed and export orders kept the workforce numbers high. As Tornado and Typhoon have peaked and F35 work delayed some reduction seems inevitable.

Yet BAE has often cut numbers locally and sometimes taken them back within a couple of years. Whether this will happen again is questionable although there are a number of potential orders such as Typhoon for India. Also the company declared the job reductions as ‘potential’ so there is perhaps optmistically  some scope for movement of staff and new work which may reduce actual redundancies.

For the future the company are working on unmanned aircraft and prototypes have been built. Questions will be asked about what comes after Typhoon and fits above the F35, if anything.  The US has long wanted to be the monopoly supplier to Europe’s Air Forces. A ‘super project’ like the F35 ordered by almost every western air force will no doubt be proposed to see off the capability of the UK. Although it might be expected the French will continue their full range of aircraft and air vehicle manufacturing capability and perhaps they are the people to use as an example or logical partner.

Preston isn’t the only area with advanced technology development and manufacturing on these aircraft. The engines, radar, electronics, undercarriage, ejection seats all have major UK development and manufacture and are all assisted by a home market which enables their equipment to be chosen on American and other aircraft. A manufacturer not selected on a home project loses mass and credibility. A long term plan for the industry isn’t visible at this time although this isn’t a new situation with aircraft projects being complex and long term.

High Speed Rail consultation period ends

The High Speed Rail consultation period concluded at the end of July and decision making will take until the end of the year. At present the line is planned to extend as far as Manchester in the north-west but it is said that High Speed trains could continue to Glasgow along conventional lines at slower speeds. Lancashire could get some benefit from the service either via Manchester or by joining the line further south. There could also be benefit from the freed capacity on the conventional track. If fuel costs continue to increase rail travel could increase dramatically as it already has started to do and the current plan is much too slow.

The previous government planned that £2bn a year would be spent on rail. Crossrail and Thameslink in London would spend that up to about 2017 when High Speed Rail work would start. Yet it seems very unfair that all the investment is going into London while the rest of the country gets London’s old rolling stock as they get new trains. There are 55million people living outside London and the gap in wealth gets larger while more and more money is poured into London – the Olympics being another example. Surely it is time for some equality.  It is said that London is more dependent on rail transport yet it has the only high speed rail line in the country and that goes outside the city to Europe. So London is sucking in people from outside to use its monopoly position. Why should people from the Midlands and the North need to travel to London to go to Europe on the train.

London is currently like a pressure cooker, hemmed in by small hills north and south and nothing of significance crossing those barriers. High Speed Rail will release some of the pressure and it would be expected to shrink the country so that areas well beyond those hills feel the benefits of the London investment effect. On top of that it could release capacity at Heathrow for lucrative international flights rather than domestic ones.

The need for a high speed line is here now, the West Coast Main Line is very busy and increasing train length is only a stop gap. Adding more track will cost as much if not more than a High Speed line.  Building should commence on the full length of line to Manchester and Leeds immediately with a target opening date in 5 years. British engineering companies should be given research funding to develop train technology. Work should also start on improving the track to ensure High Speed compatibility all the way to Scotland. The recession provides a benefit by reducing costs and the project will create jobs.

Made in Britain, we’re on TV again

The BBC once more centred around the area of Preston in its Made in Britain programme fronted by Evan Davies on the 20th June. A visit to Warton to see the highest levels of technology followed by a flight in a Typhoon ‘the most advanced fighter in the world’. This programme was music to my ears. A celebration of what is made in Britain and where we are headed discussed with some depth and two more episodes to come.

The UK is still the 7th largest manufacturer in the world but falling although still having some very large succesful companies like GKN. Comparing the UK with China the conclusion was that the jobs moved there because they are simple to do and China can do them cheaply. Our challenge is to keep ahead of the game. Obvious you might say.  Even when the items are made in China it was said that 80% of the added value is retained in the UK. The route being suggested to keep ahead is through niche manufacture like MacLaren cars and other items of sophistication and desire. Next week it’s research and development. Will it be back to Warton, although aero engines, pharmaceuticals and microchips are also big in the UK for R&D.

Recession Blues

Not sure if the recession is making things quiet or that there is a feeling that even if people have plans the lack of money will stop them.  Or is it just that PNE aren’t fairing too well and it reflects in the image of the city.

The Tithebarn plans are now waiting for a legal objection by Blackburn and how confident of it going ahead in good time would we be without the legal objection.  There was mention of knocking down the bus station a couple of weeks ago but you might think they’d build a new one first.  There is also mention of building a tramline and Trampower have drawn a plan for a line along Fishergate linking the bus station with the railway station.  Winckley Square refurbishment and the Flag Market update seem to have gone quiet as well. One thing going ahead is the Preston Guild but it doesn’t depend on any of the above.

It is easy to say we don’t need these changes but it might be short sighted not to plan ahead and start to create what Preston will need to look like in 10  and 20 years. Is fuel going to continue to get more expensive, will we be using more public transport and electric vehicles.  Will shopping move to the internet and city centres focus more on entertainment, eating and leisure or will that move out of town like in the US where many city centres are just office blocks and sandwich bars.

Three Wind Turbines near the docks

Preston council is looking at building 3 wind turbines close to where the Lancaster Canal – River Ribble join. These will be very large, similar to the one near Garstang at Dewlay Cheese, and will benefit from government grants and guarantees to take power into the grid.

It was recently reported that in the cold winter just passing wind energy was some 20% down due to lack of wind. Even so there is a need for the UK to become more independant of imported fuel as well as setting an example on carbon emissions.  The area chosen isn’t one of great natural beauty and a feature such as this will add novelty. Although the visual impact of large wind turbines isn’t to be ignored as the one at Garstang can be seen from 10 miles away and has dramatic impact when first seen close up. 

The river location is also close to the existing electricity pylons although there is a concern about whether the location is too close to airfields in the area and will effect their navigation aids or aircraft, not forgetting the safety of seagulls. Overall this sounds a good scheme and a more ambitious plan for 9 turbines might be better.

High Speed Rail challenge

Today the public consultation begins on the High Speed 2 rail link from London to the North, and campaigners who live near London are rallying support.  The campaigners are mainly those who won’t get direct benefit from the line and are objecting on environmental and economic grounds and claiming the current track can be improved.

Being close to London these groups are getting a lot of publicity and even the BBC on this morning’s Today programme took sides with the opponents. 

It is understandable that you wouldn’t want a new rail line building close to your house but the project has national implications such as: shrinking the size of the UK, creating additional capacity and relieving existing track, reducing domestic flights, creating an outlet from the pressure on the South East while bringing the north and midlands onto the pan-European high speed routes. 

The government is getting used to people objecting to all their many changes mixing the good with elaborate spurious and exaggerated claims.  Sometimes the government hasn’t got it right but in this case there is a lot of support and both major political parties support the line.  The main negative is that it is taking much too long.

Super Fast Broadband in Lancashire by 2014

Lancashire County Council have announced that they are putting together plans to roll out Super Fast Broadband to almost every place in Lancashire by 2014 to attract new businesses and benefit domestic customers.  A partner will be selected by competitive tender to implement the work and a number of funding sources identified.  The council is expected to pass the plans on the 3rd February.

Trials are underway by BT for a national scheme on a much slower timeframe.  Super Fast Broadband is often defined as up to 100MB and uses fibre optic cable either up to the cable cabinet on the end of your road or to your house.  The Lancashire scheme is said to include a variety of technologies appropriate for the areas to be covered.

This sounds a great scheme, not sure how much it will cost users though, and might guess it will be expensive, say £50 a month, for a domestic user.  BT are polling areas on their website and only those places with enough registered potential users are likely to get early roll out.

The LCC website says: ‘Lancashire has a population of 1.16m, 468,868 homes and 40,100 VAT/PAYE registered enterprises.’  That will exclude Blackpool, Blackburn and other unitary councils.

Read Lancashire County Councils plan on their website:

http://www3.lancashire.gov.uk/corporate/news/press_releases/y/m/release.asp?id=201101&r=PR11/0043

BAE SYSTEMS announces potential redundancies

The UK’s biggest advanced engineering company, BAE SYSTEMS, has announced potential local job losses following the cancellation of the UK Nimrod MRA4 and Harrier contracts.  These include 668 at Warton and 119 at Samlesbury.   In addition jobs will be lost in Manchester including closure of the Woodford site.  A statement has also been issued related the Saudi Arabian contract that potentially effect another 90 Samlesbury jobs, making the total 208 at that site. Although the statement is slightly ambiguous about whether these 90 are in the 119 but it appears not. 

BAE SYSTEMS has 35,000 UK employees of which 11,000 work at Warton and Samlesbury.  The portfolio of major programmes locally now includes the Typhoon, Tornado, Hawk, F35 plus Harriers in service overseas. Future unmanned aircraft are in development and collaboration with France has been proposed.  

The job reduction is about 8% locally so not insignificant but whether that many actually leave can depend on many factors such as new work and other consolidation and initiatives.  In addition local suppliers and out-sourcing companies may be effected.   Several million pounds will be taken from the regions economy, not good news for anyone at this time.

Manchester to Blackpool rail electrification by 2016

Philip Hammond, the Secretary of State for Transport, stated in Parliament on the 25th November 2010:

‘The Chancellor also announced on 20 October the electrification of the lines between Liverpool, Manchester, Preston and Blackpool, representing an investment of up to £300 million. I expect work in the north-west to begin next year and to be completed at about the same time as work on the Thames valley commuter lines, in 2016. Some sections will be completed well ahead of this, notably Manchester to Newton-le-Willows in late-2013, allowing new electric trains to operate from Manchester to Scotland. As with Thameslink, we will require Network Rail to keep a tight rein on costs. The redeployment of electric rolling stock to these routes will, in turn, free up hundreds of diesel units, which will be available to train operators to lease as they become available in the period after 2015.’

In a further reply he stated:

‘…..Electrification will allow the electric carriages released by the delivery of the new Thameslink carriages to be deployed. There is no point completing that electrification (Man. to Blackpool), except for the section from Manchester to Newton-le-Willows, until those electric carriages are available. The timetabling is perfectly logical and the early completion of Manchester to Newton-le-Willows will allow brand-new electric trains to be operated on the Manchester to Scotland routes.’

Some good news then.  In 2011 start electrifying the line from Manchester to the West Coast Main Line at Newton le Willows which will enable the diesel powered trains to Edinburgh that run through Preston to be new electric trains by late 2013.  While the remainder of the electrification from Manchester via Bolton and Preston to Blackpool will be complete by 2016, as well as the Liverpool to West Coast Main Line track. The bad news being that the line through Preston gets second hand stock from London, but better that, than nothing and the lines around London are much more congested so bigger faster trains are needed.

Dewlay Wind Turbine at Garstang

The very large wind turbine built at the Dewlay Cheesemaker site at Garstang is now operating.  Driving past it is very impressive and creates quite a landmark.  Yesterday was a very light wind but the turbine was turning and seemed to be going at about 6rpm.  How much power will that produce?

Looking at the Dewlay website the turbine is called ‘castle of the clouds’ as named by a local schoolgirl and announced at the opening by the government Minister for Climate Change – Charles Hendry on the 9th November 2010.   Although the turbine has been installed since September.

As a single turbine it has a strong visible, contrasting and iconic impact like the Angel of the North, although not unique, and can be seen for several miles.  It could be said that adding more turbines would spoil this and create a more industrial feature undesirable in such a location.

Manchester to Blackpool Rail Electrification

It was a surprise to discover the good news announced in the governments spending review on 21st October 2010 seemed to have no coverage.  Here is what the chancellor said:

‘In the North West, we will invest in rail electrification between Manchester, Liverpool, Preston and Blackpool and we will provide funding for a new suspension bridge over the Mersey at Runcorn.’

Must admit that when it was first announced it appeared to be a stunt by the last government to get votes and there is no saying it’s still not a vote buyer.  No dates have been announced but little detail was announced on many items. Presumably the transferring of rolling stock from London is still on the cards and probably offsets some of the cost.   With the doubt over routing of the High Speed Train this is presumably a shorter term improvement and will enable a lot of service improvements by allowing electrified trains to travel between Manchester and Blackpool as well as to Scotland from Manchester and Blackpool from the south.

Defence Review

The defence review announced on the 19th October ended the UK requirement for Harrier, Nimrod MRA4 and vertical take off F35 which all provide work in the local BAE SYSTEMS factories.  The Nimrod has been in work for well over 10 years and much of the design and development is complete although upgrades and support would be expected. The Harrier fleet is a support activity but its termination coupled with end of the the vertical take-off F35 requirement reduces the UK foot in the door of advanced technology that was gained with the Harrier some 40 years ago.

What the implications are for the the status of the UK in the F35 programme will unfold as the details are finalised. Not to ignore the Rolls Royce involvement. Samlesbury has major investment due to the F35 and it would be bad for the region if this was affected.

That the Tornado and Typhoon continue as the RAF’s prime fighters is good news.  No mention of the future of unmanned aircraft projects although the French relationship is increasing overall which might be a clue.

BAE trims its cloth

Around 450 jobs are to go at BAE SYSTEMS Warton and Samlesbury plants out of a total of 950 that will be shed nationally.  In such a large company it could be expected that there will be a lot of volunteers and redeployment but with the Strategic Defence Review approaching the company workforce could be in for a rocky time so transferring to another site might not be a good move.

Over the years there have been many ups and downs and the factories in the north west have benefitted from consolidation of the industry.  With the rump of the aircraft sector now being in the north-west there isn’t a lot more consolidation available and changing technologies mean new types of aircraft are being developed with new companies entering the market as well as new countries.

Over the years this industry has done well for the region and there is little opportunity for similar work possibly in the UK so any damage could further degrade the UK skilled engineering base.  Reduce the potential for exports and influence while creating a need to import these expensive products: double losses all round.  Not to mention the small factories all over the north-west who supply parts.

At the moment it hasn’t come to major reductions and Liam Fox commented that he wanted new technology to be introduced rather than upgrading old products.  Upgrading is a useful piece of business but the prestige of producing a new and complete product creates a more solid core and a reputation that brings customer confidence and a position of strength in negotiations with potential partners.

Industrial Revolutionaries in Preston

The Industrial Revolutionaries is a display at the Harris Museum in Preston.  The revolutionaries are the people who made an impact in Preston and include cotton magnates and reformers, mill workers and inventors.  The display was funded by a number of organisations to make that key part of Preston’s history come alive for locals and tourists.  This is achieved to some degree although if you already have a decent knowledge of local history it might not be deep enough whereas to many it will be just right. 

Entering the museum it isn’t obvious where the display is if you come in when the monitor is showing something else. It’s on the third floor.

The information is in a modern well presented display made of a number of islands in subdued light. The story is formed around 7 people in different segments of society which can still be recognised to this day in the UK wrapped in 200 years of new legislation while the changes from rural to urban industrial can be seen today in the development of China.  As a side issue, sort of worrying about where we are heading, we need some new inventors in the north west. 

For me the most interesting part was the 100 year old film of the raw cotton being processed into material in the Yard Mill.  Looking at the workers, their reactions to the camera and thinking they were walking round Preston over a 100 years ago sparked curiosity.  Ladies in shawls, men in flat caps or bowlers.  We see where the flat cap worker image comes from in the north, whereas in the south it often represents the wealthy country gentleman.  The story of the workhouse and prison reform was interesting as well.  They’re all interesting and even though it might not appear too deep there is enough, as it would be a good test to name the main characters on leaving. I’d fail. 

It would be good if this could be made into a permanent exhibition coupled with updating the History of Preston exhibition.  Having been ‘Stuarted’ which is  a term used for those intercepted and spoken to by the enthusiastic and knowledgeable museum worker Stuart, it appears that to do that will cost a lot of money and probably at this time the cash will be difficult to find.  If I win the Euro Millions maybe. Been to see this twice now and overall it’s definitely worth a visit. On until 6th November 2010.  Website;  http://www.revolutionaries.org.uk/index.php

Inception

Best film for ages, began to feel high at the fantastic idea behind it. Need to keep alert to follow the multi-threaded story. Great music. Was I dreaming?

Couldn’t help thinking Leonardo Di Caprio has developed a hint of Marlon Brando or was it the part.

Leyland bus name slips into Blackburn

The Leyland name is once more associating itself with bus manufacture in Lancashire.  Optare the Leeds based bus manufacturer who bought out East Lancashire Coachbuilders of Blackburn have agreed that Ashkok-Leyland of India will buy a 26% stake in the company.   There is quite a mis-match in size as the Indian company makes thousands of commercial vehicles a year and is higher valued than Optare.

Ashkok-Leyland is owned by Hinduja Group and has factories in India as well as the UAE and East Europe. The company began in 1948, although the tie up with Leyland in the 1950’s created the name Ashkok-Leyland. It has manufacturing and technology agreements with Nissan and Avia as well as its own research.  The tie up with Optare provides Optare technology while giving Optare access to A-L lower cost sources and wider market base.

It is forecast that the total Indian workforce will grow to be larger than that of China by 2030 and rise to a billion by 2040. If the forecast is accurate and the planet can sustain such numbers it will create a massive market that will be a magnet for worldwide manufacturers. India is training engineers at a rate not heard of here for a long time and they are generally looking to be self sufficient.  Survival in the world market requires strategic intelligence as well as technological prowess and carefully controlled costs and it is hoped that Optare can cleverly tread through this minefield to continue as a British manufacturer with design and development in the UK.

Defence Minister fires warning shots at Farnborough

Liam Fox the Defence Minister made a speech at Farnborough giving a warning about the affordability of defence projects in the current climate.  Although some might say in any climate.

The most promising part of the speech was the support for export programmes. This is quite different from what Robin Cook started out with in the last government, although he soon found out it was easier said than done.

Some of it sounded like fine words and it will be interesting to find what happens in the longer term. Statements like upgrading existing products is taking funding away from new technology. This sounds real enough yet getting those few extra years or enabling an existing item to meet a new threat sound more cost effective than letting them become incapable. Also the statement about too much optimisation also sounds good but with many defence products you either win or lose and being unable to hit the target isn’t a useful option.  In reality watch out for less upgrading, more new technology, less gold plating.

Other statements like recognising sovereignty for some items but co-operating more with the French are things that the aircraft industry has done for years.  Cutting numbers to make up for cost overruns isn’t that new either. Co-operating with the French is something that has been mentioned in both nuclear and aircraft carrier work so perhaps that is a clue to his thinking on one or both of those.

In conclusion the export support and new technology themes are positive. We await the defence review.

Taranis Unmanned Aircraft unveiled

Yesterday July 12th, BAE SYSTEMS at Warton held a ceremony to unveil the Taranis Unmanned Combat Air Vehicle concept demonstrator which is due to fly in 2011 around 5 years after the programme was launched. The aircraft is the size of a Hawk training aircraft which presumably determines its range, which is said to be long, and its carrying capability.

This aircraft demonstrates the UK capability to produce the stealthy airframe, electronics and engine with the complex ground control system. Positioning for the future is important with BAE SYSTEMS and Rolls Royce being two of the biggest and most advanced engineering companies in the UK. The market for these vehicles will be substantial and international partnerships, leadership and workshare isn’t yet established. At this time we also await the government strategic defence review output which will examine the UK’s requirements.

With Tornado, Typhoon and Lightning II the manned element has at least 30 years life unless technology overtakes it as it frequently threatens, but not succeeding, to do. Although it seems likely the two types will complement each other for some time. Interesting imagining how quickly things could change.