Aviation – Made In Preston

Tail winds at BAE Systems Lancashire

First there was Tornado, then there was Typhoon and what next? The concept for the anticipated next aircraft project at BAE Systems in Lancashire and the Royal Air Force has been announced as the Tempest, photographed below.

A concept design for a two engine fighter bomber with a capability to fly unmanned. The UK government has allocated £200m a year for 10 years and there is a partnership with BAE Systems, Rolls Royce engines, MBDA missiles and Leonardo of Italy plus of course UK MOD and RAF.

As usual the partnerships for the next European Combat Aircraft are being debated with rival offerings from the big players. Earlier this year Airbus and Dassault of France announced they would partner for the next Future Combat Aircraft project excluding the UK. The UK continued with its discussions with Japan, Sweden and Turkey. More recently, in fact this week, the head of Airbus proposed that BAE Systems merge its military aircraft business with Airbus and there is talk from France and Germany for the UK to join their project to strengthen European Security. Slightly ironic considering the UK is being excluded from the European GPS system due to security. The difference between politicians and industry perhaps.

The RAF is looking to be flying the Tempest by 2035 along with the Typhoon and Lightning II (F35). As future partners are unknown it can’t be said what the future workload will be locally. A partnership including France is likely to result in a debate about who leads and who gets which juicier parts of work. Other partners are likely to allow the UK to lead the project which usually means designing and building the forward end and cockpit. In any event it’s likely that Final Assembly which involves test flying will be in the UK, hopefully at Warton, for RAF aircraft.

At the Farnborough Air Show the UK also announced that Typhoon will be used as the bridge for technology on the Future Combat Aircraft. Several upgrades will be introduced later this year and future technology used to keep the Typhoon in service for another 30 years.

Work in Lancashire continues on Typhoon manufacture and development, F35 rear fuselage work is ramping up. Other concept projects like Taranis and now Tempest will hopefully lead to another 30 years of work taking the local sites to over 100 years old.

Qatar signs for Typhoon Jets

After signing a letter of intent in September a contract agreement has been signed by the UK Government and Qatar Government for 24 Typhoon jets and their support, said to be worth £5bn. The support element will extend the contract work beyond the introduction date which is said to be 2022.

Qatar joins Kuwait, Oman and Saudi Arabia as operators of Typhoon in the Arabian Peninsula.

In the UK the airframes are built at Samlesbury and Warton near Preston using parts delivered from all over the UK and across Europe.

Typhoon is built by the consortium Eurofighter GmbH based in Munich of which BAE Systems is a partner. A fine example of international co-operation at an industrial and government level.

RAF Typhoon at Blackpool Air Show

Redundancies at BAE Systems

It was announced that 750 posts will go at the Warton and Samlesbury sites of BAE Systems in Lancashire. Work on Typhoon and Hawk is decreasing. Contracts with Saudi Arabia and Qatar continue to be discussed.

400 jobs will also be lost at Brough in East Yorkshire which has worked mainly on the Hawk. In total 1915 jobs will go including jobs at RAF bases, as Tornado leaves service in 2019, and some in the ships business.

At the same time BAE announced that work on the F35 Lightning II at Samlesbury will be stable from 2020 for many years. BAE makes 10% of the aircraft which is attracting orders from all over the world.

BAE also announced organisation changes which will make the aircraft business a single focus, separate from ships and land, among other changes.

How the redundancies will effect the workforce is to be announced but volunteers and early retirement are often used. Also if the job losses are spread over a few years there will be new jobs and unfilled jobs to be met. BAE has sites all over the UK and overseas. Things start to get uncomfortable when compulsory redundancies are necessary.

Denis Healey RIP and his Preston Effect

Denis Healey, a forceful Londoner brought up as a Yorkshireman, died this weekend at the grand age of 98. After impressive war service, gaining an MBE in 1945, he joined the Labour Party becoming an MP in 1952. He was a minister through a turbulent time in British politics between 1964 and 1979 and in the shadow cabinet up to 1987, retiring in 1992. As new Defence Secretary in 1964 he made decisions that had a major effect in Preston.

The TSR2 was a big project to build Britain’s next bomber. Stuffed with the latest high technology it was a large aircraft to be able to fly at supersonic speed beneath the Iron Curtain at night. The British aerospace industry had been restructured around the aircraft with Preston’s English Electric Aviation plants transferring to the newly formed British Aircraft Corporation.

On election in 1964 the new government significantly cut defence expenditure and with it the TSR2, which was to be replaced by the American F111, an order that was also later cancelled at some cost.

At the time this resulted in thousands of redundancies, but it also spawned the beneficial era of international collaboration in defence projects. At the Preston area sites this includes; the Anglo French Jaguar, the Anglo-German-Italian Tornado and 4 nation Eurofighter Typhoon which have brought expansion, good jobs and continuity of work to the area despite ups and downs.

Sometimes major disruption can be for the better in the longer term although the cycle continues.

Just a footnote perhaps in the career of Denis Healey. RIP.

Management Redundancies at BAE and Lancashire County Council

In the last few weeks BAE SYSTEMS announced between 150 and 450 management job losses at their Warton plant. Lancashire County Council announced 150 management job losses.

BAE said they hope to re-deploy some people to other parts of the business and both organisations will be looking for volunteers.

Both organisations have reduced headcount in the last few years. It’s often difficult to establish how many people have left an organisation as out-sourcing may reduce the numbers directly employed. Sometimes the jobs remain but the staff change employer . Also many organisations have natural wastage and people under threat are allowed to take other roles.

It can be a traumatic time, although a redundancy package at the right stage of life can be a very good thing for some. Some job shuffling to allow this to happen is the decent way to go about it.

Transport Plans for Central Lancashire

It’s always pleasing to read about new transport and infrastructure projects. Transport is recognised as a key factor in enabling development.

This week Transport for Lancashire announced new road schemes. Their plan of laying infrastructure is to enable the proposals for housing and industry in the City Deal. It brings a new by-pass for Broughton and a link from the M55 to Springfields and the Warton Enterprise Zone. These are worthy plans but they’ll probably take at least 5 years. Couple that with electrification of the Manchester to Blackpool line and well into the future high speed rail trains, if not the track, should lay a good foundation for the area.

Most of this is headed by the Lancashire Enterprise Partnership, chaired by our favourite grocer, Edwin Booth. This is localism allowing local authorities the ability to plan and implement what the elected representatives agree is best for the future.

For Lancashire, Aerospace and Shale Gas are the two key economic opportunities seen by the councils. While loss of traditional industries, over reliance on the public sector and lack of suitable housing are seen as the challenges.

Let’s hope it works. Aerospace has the potential to continue to be big although the role of the local factories is changing from heading huge European projects to a smaller role in bigger American projects, with future European projects thin on the ground. Depending on aerospace might contain risks but it’s here now and to encourage it to stay we need to make sure it has the best support. The UK aerospace industry has always benefitted from big investment in R&D and science in the UK along with a basic skill base, these are also key factors needing encouragement. Locally one of these can be helped through engineering education.

Typhoon Sale to Oman

Some good news at Christmas – The Sultanate of Oman announced the purchase of 12 Typhoon and 8 Hawk aircraft in a deal said to be worth £2.5bn. The announcement was made as David Cameron visited Oman and brings more continuity to the local aircraft factories and a significant export boost.

The UK has long associations with Oman going back some 200 years and 7,000 UK citizens work there. The Royal Air Force of Oman operated Hunter and Jaguar aircraft and then planned to buy Tornado but it was not finalised. They purchased Hawk aircraft in the 1990’s and the American F16. This further purchase of the latest type of Hawk and the Typhoon extends and strengthens the UK link to the country and is great news.

BAE Systems and EADS proposed merger

BAE Systems announced that they are in talks to merge their business with the European Aeronautic, Defence and Space Company (EADS). This naturally arouses some fears ranging from a personal job level up to a national security level.

In 1999 BAE Systems was formed by merging British Aerospace (BAe) with Marconi Electronic Systems (MES) who have a large US presence. At the time this was controversial as BAe had been talking to Daimler Chrysler Aerospace of Germany with a view to merging and the sudden move to merge with MES was seen by the Germans as a betrayal. The Germans then merged with French and Spanish companies to form EADS which has most of the Airbus manufacture.

Then in 2006 BAE Systems sold off their commercial aircraft Airbus activity to EADS along with several thousand UK jobs to focus on the US defence market. This broke the old rule of thumb that the cycle of defence and commercial aerospace tended to balance each other.

In 2012 that rule of thumb is working against the defence biased BAE Systems who are now looking for a partner with commercial aircraft work, worrying that western defence budgets are being slashed.

The merger is taking BAE Systems into what appears a political hotbed with the German, French and Spanish governments having shares in EADS. It might also be said that the UK government has a ‘golden’ share in BAE Systems although it is quite ‘hands-off’.

There are those who immediately get a rush of blood to the head at the mention of Europe and are making themselves heard without it being clear if their issue is political, defence or business oriented. On the other side are those who say BAE Systems would be eaten by a merger with an American company. We shouldn’t forget that BAE Systems build nearly all the main defence equipment for the UK and are the biggest and one of the most sophisticated engineering design and manufacturing companies in the UK, if not worldwide. The products include submarines, ships, aircraft, vehicles, guns and electronic equipment.

In Lancashire BAE Systems has two large factories in the Preston area at Samlesbury and Warton. The main projects are the Typhoon, F35, with R&D on UAVs as a seedcorn. Product support is a major item as well. Historically the sites have had their eye on the horizon for the next project that will bring continuity to design, development, manufacturing and support work. The Typhoon is now looking for export work and is in a late phase of its cycle, F35 is mainly manufacturing so the future hinges on either a big new project or a step up in UAV work particularly for Warton. The big new project, even if joined by the Typhoon partners looks unlikely and the UAV market is still in embryo form with new entrants, and France being looked on as a likely partner.

In theory a merger with EADS could bring in work currently outside the scope of BAE Systems if perhaps Typhoon could be re-organised. Warton has been the main beneficiary of UK aviation industry consolidation, could it benefit from European consolidation? On the other hand, sharing of knowledge with the US on the F35 might be made more difficult with a European merger. Also whether the centre of gravity and decision making in military air vehicles will move towards Europe is a worry. Overall it seems that without the big new project Warton will be looking at a gradual reduction and change of shape over time whatever happens. Samlesbury should have a future as an F35 manufacturing and a support business for quite some time. There are so many balls in the air that it’s hard to determine whether an EADS merger will change any of that. With defence there is always a national defence aspect that involves the government and so brings in politics related to national capability and jobs. It could be said the safest thing to do is to stay in your bunker and resist the merger yet there is a much bigger picture that needs to be assessed if the local ship is to remain in a healthy form of whatever type. Warton and Samlesbury have depended on huge projects and consolidation on these continues on the chessboard of the worldwide defence, technology and aviation industry.

Preston Guild 2012 – I was there – Saturday 1st September 2012

Preston Guild is once every 20 years so we weren’t going to miss this one. We loved the Royal Jubilee, the Olympic Games and we were sure we’d enjoy Preston Guild.

It seemed everyone was in a great mood, the weather was good. The streets were packed and the Square Food Festival ram jam full. The Vintage Weekend filled after the procession and Miller and Avenham Parks were in good form.

Read our account with photos on the webiste.

http://www.madeinpreston.co.uk/General/PrestonGuild2012report.html

Preston Guild 2012 turns up the heat

Preston comes together as events are announced for the 2012 Guild. Here are four unmissables:

The new multi-million pound ‘Discover Preston’ display in the Harris Museum, opened on 28th July, is something I’ve been burning to see. On Friday 17th August 12noon to 3pm it will be closed for it’s official opening. There’s a joke there somewhere. Read about it on the Harris Museum website:

http://www.harrismuseum.org.uk/current-exhibitions/7-new-history-gallery

The Vintage Guild Weekend website and video have been produced with style and the food, craft, art, music, dancing, pop-up theatres will show Preston off in the attractive and decorative Miller and Avenham Parks and the Winckley Street area on September 1st and 2nd: http://vintageguildweekend.com/

Watch the Vintage Guild Weekend YouTube video with Paul Hemingway:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WXH_8iNrgKM&feature=player_embedded#!

The Deltic prototype at the Ribble Steam Railway in Preston is something I never thought I’d see and represents one of the most iconic things ever made in Preston. Deltic locomotives were the pride of the East Coast Main Line hauling the top link expresses from Kings Cross to Edinburgh Waverley for over 20 years. Find out more on their website:

http://www.ribblesteam.org.uk/

The Made in Preston theme has been adopted by the Guild and 9 projects covering an imaginative range of themes including memories of English Electric and Leyland Motors will be presented.

http://www.prestonguild2012.com/made-in-preston

It can never be allowed to pass that Made in Preston has been the name of this website for over 10 years and will support the Guild whole heartedly but has no official links with it and gets no thanks. None wanted though and no worries. Come together, right now:

http://www.madeinpreston.co.uk/

New Hawk aircraft order from Saudi Arabia

Some good news. The government of Saudi Arabia has ordered 22 Hawk Advanced Jet Trainers as part of a package of training equipment which includes 55 Pilatus PC21 basic training aircraft. The Hawks will be delivered in 2016.

This will reduce the number of redundancies previously announced at the factories at Warton, near Preston, and at Brough, near Hull. There was discussion about work being moved from Brough to Warton, whether this order will affect that isn’t known. Although the Daily Telegraph reported that the bulk of the work will take place at Warton and only 200 jobs at Brough will be saved out of 850. This seems to imply that some work will move.

The orders from the Government of Saudi Arabia have been a boon to the UK aircraft industry, the locality and the UK balance of payments since the early 1960’s when Lightning fighters were supplied. This was followed by Tornado and more recently by Typhoon.

Parliament debates BAE redundancies

On November 24^th a debate was held in parliament on the redundancies at BAE SYSTEMS primarily at the Warton and Samlesbury plants in Lancashire and the closure of the Brough site in Yorkshire. The prime mover was David Davis, the MP for the Yorkshire seat containing the Brough site. Also Alan Johnson, the MP for Hull West. The debate was poorly attended with only those from threatened sites turning up. These included North West MP’s: Ben Wallace, Mark Menzies, Jack Straw, Mark Hendrick, Lorraine Fullbrook Graham Jones. With Nigel Evans sitting in as Speaker. The government was represented by Peter Luff, Parliamentary Under Secretary of State for Defence Equipment.

The main speaker was David Davis who raised points about the betrayal of a long history successful work at the Brough plant. That the Hawk still has prospects for sales and that much of it is being offered to overseas companies in ‘offset’ deals to gain more sales. Also the point was raised that BAE had made the error of selling off its commercial aircraft interests which had often taken up the slack when defence orders are slow. A plea to slow the rate of redundancies at Brough was raised.

There was also talk about the terms in the ‘yellow book’ which represents the trading agreements between government and industry. This relates to guaranteeing jobs to maintain capability and covers who pays for redundancy costs. It seems the government pays in this case. Some MP’s think BAE is exploiting this.

Others mentioned large overspends that need to be reduced and ensuring the ability to satisfy future projects.

Each MP spoke. It seemed reading the debate that very little was said that hasn’t been said a dozen times. It is perhaps unusual for redundancies at one company to secure so much time for discussion and it left me wondering what was achieved. At the end there was a resolution which might mean more in politics than it does when reading it. This says;

That this House urges BAE Systems to act to preserve the UK’s defence production skills base and, as a recipient of enormous resources over many years from the UK taxpayer, to deploy those resources in such a way as to protect the nation’s manufacturing capability.

Or it seemed; Carry on as planned, if what you make costs more and what you can offer is limited by inflexibility then you reduce the chance to sell it, and so could lose more jobs.

It could be argued that to preserve jobs the government should place contracts that pull work forward or create new research. In the current climate this seems unlikely.

An overview of defence as a whole could read as follows. Over the years the UK aircraft industry has consolidated to a few plants and BAE has changed from an aircraft company to one that delivers systems with a large part in the US. Also the number of projects has declined and it appears that the UK is likely to become an aircraft ‘part’ manufacturer. With UAV’s potentially creating work but it isn’t clear how that will evolve. The alternatives come with large bill. Perhaps a measure of the UK’s decline over the years coupled with increased complexity and the range of military options from tanks to submarines, UCAV’s and very expensive electronics, counter-measures, surveillance and cyber-warfare. Where to focus? Which elements to play a major part in? Off the shelf, licence build, direct purchase? A lot to consider. Let’s hope we can maintain a viable aircraft industry producing whole aircraft rather than a bit player. Today we might not be optimistic. Only the French put national glory and maintenance of capability on an equal pedestal to financials e.g. Renault, Airbus, TGV, Nuclear Power, Ships.

The aircraft industry has been recognised as one that generates large export earnings through products and services over long periods of time. Aircraft also contain a wide range of sophisticated equipment that provides high technology business and employment all over the country and these items are also exported. The business fosters close relationships and partnerships with other countries of all sizes that often leads onto other business, particularly infrastructure, as well as demonstrating a capability to participate in future high technology international ventures. Investment in aircraft projects provides the likes of BAE, Rolls Royce, Martin Baker, Marconi with the foundation for their products. There is a lot to lose without care.

Read the full debate on the website ‘they work for you’.

http://www.theyworkforyou.com/debates/?id=2011-11-24a.472.1&s=speaker%3A11668#g475.0

BAE Systems redundancies announced

BAE Systems announced on 27^th September, 3,000 potential job losses at its sites. Of the total the Preston area includes; 843 at Warton and 565 at Samlesbury, making 1,408 in the area. Worst hit of all the military aircraft sites is Brough in East Yorkshire which is to lose 899 out of a total workforce of around 1,300. As yet no timescales for the rundown are in general circulation.

Warton and Samlesbury are hit by a slowdown in Typhoon deliveries which has been agreed with Germany, Italy and Spain. Also by a slowdown in the build up of the US led programme, the F35.

The Brough site is Hawk related and a union representative said on the BBC that Hawk work will be moved to Warton which they are going to resist. The company has stated it is negotiating ending manufacture at Brough which will leave structural testing at the site.

In the last few years there have been a number of reductions at the Preston area sites. The Jaguar and Harrier taken out of UK service. Nimrod scrapped. Some Tornados mothballed. Previously defence work has been consolidated at Warton as other sites closed and export orders kept the workforce numbers high. As Tornado and Typhoon have peaked and F35 work delayed some reduction seems inevitable.

Yet BAE has often cut numbers locally and sometimes taken them back within a couple of years. Whether this will happen again is questionable although there are a number of potential orders such as Typhoon for India. Also the company declared the job reductions as ‘potential’ so there is perhaps optmistically some scope for movement of staff and new work which may reduce actual redundancies.

For the future the company are working on unmanned aircraft and prototypes have been built. Questions will be asked about what comes after Typhoon and fits above the F35, if anything. The US has long wanted to be the monopoly supplier to Europe’s Air Forces. A ‘super project’ like the F35 ordered by almost every western air force will no doubt be proposed to see off the capability of the UK. Although it might be expected the French will continue their full range of aircraft and air vehicle manufacturing capability and perhaps they are the people to use as an example or logical partner.

Preston isn’t the only area with advanced technology development and manufacturing on these aircraft. The engines, radar, electronics, undercarriage, ejection seats all have major UK development and manufacture and are all assisted by a home market which enables their equipment to be chosen on American and other aircraft. A manufacturer not selected on a home project loses mass and credibility. A long term plan for the industry isn’t visible at this time although this isn’t a new situation with aircraft projects being complex and long term.

BAE SYSTEMS announces potential redundancies

The UK’s biggest advanced engineering company, BAE SYSTEMS, has announced potential local job losses following the cancellation of the UK Nimrod MRA4 and Harrier contracts. These include 668 at Warton and 119 at Samlesbury. In addition jobs will be lost in Manchester including closure of the Woodford site. A statement has also been issued related the Saudi Arabian contract that potentially effect another 90 Samlesbury jobs, making the total 208 at that site. Although the statement is slightly ambiguous about whether these 90 are in the 119 but it appears not.

BAE SYSTEMS has 35,000 UK employees of which 11,000 work at Warton and Samlesbury. The portfolio of major programmes locally now includes the Typhoon, Tornado, Hawk, F35 plus Harriers in service overseas. Future unmanned aircraft are in development and collaboration with France has been proposed.

The job reduction is about 8% locally so not insignificant but whether that many actually leave can depend on many factors such as new work and other consolidation and initiatives. In addition local suppliers and out-sourcing companies may be effected. Several million pounds will be taken from the regions economy, not good news for anyone at this time.

Defence Review

The defence review announced on the 19th October ended the UK requirement for Harrier, Nimrod MRA4 and vertical take off F35 which all provide work in the local BAE SYSTEMS factories. The Nimrod has been in work for well over 10 years and much of the design and development is complete although upgrades and support would be expected. The Harrier fleet is a support activity but its termination coupled with end of the the vertical take-off F35 requirement reduces the UK foot in the door of advanced technology that was gained with the Harrier some 40 years ago.

What the implications are for the the status of the UK in the F35 programme will unfold as the details are finalised. Not to ignore the Rolls Royce involvement. Samlesbury has major investment due to the F35 and it would be bad for the region if this was affected.

That the Tornado and Typhoon continue as the RAF’s prime fighters is good news. No mention of the future of unmanned aircraft projects although the French relationship is increasing overall which might be a clue.

Liam Fox in Saudi Arabia supporting local industry

It is reported the UK Minister of Defence Liam Fox is meeting the King of Saudi Arabia and will discuss potential arms sales. The US has recently announced the sale of $100bn of arms to the region and the UK is hoping to gain a share of the market. This could include further sales of Typhoon and ships. The UK also sent a high level delegation to Brazil in the wake of the French and Italians who have already staked their positions and David Cameron visited India to promote the industry. It has been commented that the last government didn’t provide enough support to arms sales and there is a lot of ground to be made up in re-establishing contacts and position. The UK has traditionally been a major supplier of arms to enable friendly countries to defend themselves and to create alliances as well as to fund continued technological development.

BAE trims its cloth

Around 450 jobs are to go at BAE SYSTEMS Warton and Samlesbury plants out of a total of 950 that will be shed nationally. In such a large company it could be expected that there will be a lot of volunteers and redeployment but with the Strategic Defence Review approaching the company workforce could be in for a rocky time so transferring to another site might not be a good move.

Over the years there have been many ups and downs and the factories in the north west have benefitted from consolidation of the industry. With the rump of the aircraft sector now being in the north-west there isn’t a lot more consolidation available and changing technologies mean new types of aircraft are being developed with new companies entering the market as well as new countries.

Over the years this industry has done well for the region and there is little opportunity for similar work possibly in the UK so any damage could further degrade the UK skilled engineering base. Reduce the potential for exports and influence while creating a need to import these expensive products: double losses all round. Not to mention the small factories all over the north-west who supply parts.

At the moment it hasn’t come to major reductions and Liam Fox commented that he wanted new technology to be introduced rather than upgrading old products. Upgrading is a useful piece of business but the prestige of producing a new and complete product creates a more solid core and a reputation that brings customer confidence and a position of strength in negotiations with potential partners.

Defence Minister fires warning shots at Farnborough

Liam Fox the Defence Minister made a speech at Farnborough giving a warning about the affordability of defence projects in the current climate. Although some might say in any climate.

The most promising part of the speech was the support for export programmes. This is quite different from what Robin Cook started out with in the last government, although he soon found out it was easier said than done.

Some of it sounded like fine words and it will be interesting to find what happens in the longer term. Statements like upgrading existing products is taking funding away from new technology. This sounds real enough yet getting those few extra years or enabling an existing item to meet a new threat sound more cost effective than letting them become incapable. Also the statement about too much optimisation also sounds good but with many defence products you either win or lose and being unable to hit the target isn’t a useful option. In reality watch out for less upgrading, more new technology, less gold plating.

Other statements like recognising sovereignty for some items but co-operating more with the French are things that the aircraft industry has done for years. Cutting numbers to make up for cost overruns isn’t that new either. Co-operating with the French is something that has been mentioned in both nuclear and aircraft carrier work so perhaps that is a clue to his thinking on one or both of those.

In conclusion the export support and new technology themes are positive. We await the defence review.

Taranis Unmanned Aircraft unveiled

Yesterday July 12th, BAE SYSTEMS at Warton held a ceremony to unveil the Taranis Unmanned Combat Air Vehicle concept demonstrator which is due to fly in 2011 around 5 years after the programme was launched. The aircraft is the size of a Hawk training aircraft which presumably determines its range, which is said to be long, and its carrying capability.

This aircraft demonstrates the UK capability to produce the stealthy airframe, electronics and engine with the complex ground control system. Positioning for the future is important with BAE SYSTEMS and Rolls Royce being two of the biggest and most advanced engineering companies in the UK. The market for these vehicles will be substantial and international partnerships, leadership and workshare isn’t yet established. At this time we also await the government strategic defence review output which will examine the UK’s requirements.

With Tornado, Typhoon and Lightning II the manned element has at least 30 years life unless technology overtakes it as it frequently threatens, but not succeeding, to do. Although it seems likely the two types will complement each other for some time. Interesting imagining how quickly things could change.

Volcanic Ash blowing over Lancashire

Today, flights all over northern Britain have been grounded because of volcanic ash from Iceland. Quite a coincidence to have these northerly winds at the same time as a volcano erupts. Look out for bright sunsets.

Many years ago a BA flight over Malaysia flew into a volcanic cloud, all four engines went out and the windscreen was sandblasted. A great story if you can find the full transcript. After gliding out of the ash the pilot managed to restart the engines but couldn’t see out of the windscreen. He landed successfully to much acclaim.

You might think the aircraft could fly lower or higher where there is less ash. Aircraft fly into desert airports with sand blowing about. Is this an over-reaction and total risk aversion. A bit of a surprise to wake up with this announcement when nothing had been publicly threatened as late as 11pm last night and the volcano has been erupting for some time. Also not a lot of news about how long this might continue and what flight alternatives are being offered people. Overall seems to be being covered more like a show than a major disruption. Few questions are being asked about whether it’s an over-reaction and why was there no notice.