Trident Nuclear deterrent?

A decision is due on replacing the existing submarines for the Trident nuclear weapon system.  These submarines are built in the North West of England.

Those who support it believe it is a deterrent and weapon of last resort that has made a major war unimaginable, making smaller conflicts the only option.  They also believe that Europe should play its part in defence of the west and not rely wholly on the USA.   The UK and France have this capability in Europe.  Several other countries in the world have the capability and others are developing it.  Another element is in maintaining  the thousands of skilled jobs involved with it.

Those against it point to the moral aspect of weapons of mass destruction and war in general. They believe that current wars are more related to insurgency than major attacks and that defence should be sized for that.  They also point to the cost and how the money could be better spent. Some are developing a case to say the technology is outdated.  Others think it makes them a more likely target.

No doubt most people would like to reduce defence costs although some say an alternative would be more expensive.  On the moral side the only country to have given up nuclear weapons is Ukraine and the UK was a signatory to the agreement to defend its borders. A rather thin guarantee in the end.

In reality the jobs aspect should have no bearing on the decision as it is a matter of defence need and it is likely that other submarines and more ships will be needed to carry alternative weapons as well as extra squadrons of aircraft.

Although using nuclear weapons appears unimaginable, as a weapon of last resort they definitely appear to have a deterrent effect.  As there are smaller wars happening in Europe and the Middle East and China is building new bases far out to sea it seems a risky option not to maintain the capability and hope that they are never needed.

The leader and some Labour MPs are aligned with the SNP and Green Party in wanting to remove nuclear weapons.  Although a large number of Labour MPs support the renewal.  The Conservatives support renewing the system and it is expected a vote in Parliament will approve it this year.

 

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The Beauty of the North West

The North West of England is a great place to live.  The northern half is all hills and lakes with attractive towns like Ambleside and Keswick.  Even the roads are great, the M6 winds through the hills at Tebay and climbs over Shap, there aren’t many better Motorway routes.

Rydal Water near Ambleside

Rydal Water near Ambleside

The central area is mellow hills and farmland with small cities like Lancaster and Preston, resorts like Blackpool, Southport and Morecambe on a flat coastal area of rich soil.  As well as interesting small places such as Arnside with its long viaduct and tidal bore coming in from Morecambe Bay.  Inland is the Forest of Bowland which is an area of hills, without trees, and pleasant market towns and villages.  Clitheroe and Whalley are two interesting towns, known for up-market wine merchants and up-market clothes stores respectively as well as a castle and an abbey, both ruined.  Blackburn, Burnley and Wigan are also in this area and both have interesting features including the Leeds Liverpool Canal and Cotton Mill museums.

To the south is Manchester and Liverpool and the county of Cheshire. Two great cities and a county full of interesting country houses and National Trust houses plus Jodrell Bank radio telescope.  There is also the area around Ramsbottom which has the interesting East Lancs Railway.  Liverpool has greatly upped its tourist attractiveness in the last few years.

The North West of England, which is about 120 miles long, 30 miles wide holds around 7 million people, mainly in the southern half and a wide range of things to see from city, hill, lake and sea.

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Who will land on Mars first

The USA stepped up its space programme yesterday with the test launch and recovery of the Orion capsule designed for a manned journey to Mars and back.   The flight was the first time an inhabitable capsule has gone beyond low earth orbit for over 40 years.   Reaching 3600 miles and returning to earth.

A journey to Mars and back will take going on for 2 years.  The Martian year is almost double the Earth year so the flight can only be done when the alignments are right which only happens a few times a year.  This is a long term programme and unless serious rivalry builds it will be 20 years before the flight to Mars.

It’s fitting that the USA leads the space race as most of its population are born of those who took the step beyond the comfort zone to reach out for a place they knew little of.  Or knew nothing at all in the earliest visits where the risk of falling off the flat earth was a huge danger.

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Transport in a whirl or is it the modern norm

Overall there seems to be a lot of untidiness and uncertainty in the government’s transport policy. Perhaps they could smarten up their act.

Last week we it was announced First Group have been selected for West Coast Main Line contract, replacing Virgin.  Opponents to High Speed Rail, HS2, are still making a bit of noise although it seems to be quietening. There is a constant noise about Heathrow having a third runway. There are discussions on increasing the motorway speed limit to 80mph and to decrease the single carriageway limit to 50mph while 20mph is becoming a new norm in side streets.

Plenty to argue about. Starting with the West Coast Main Line.  Virgin seem to be doing a good job and you’d think that might count for a lot. Richard Branson says First are promising to pay the government extra money after 2020 based on an unrealistic passenger growth forecast.  The government case hasn’t explained these details so it isn’t clear if he’s right, and he’s asking for a judicial review to expose it.  A petition signed by 150,000, who might be interested or might be Labour supporters, has been raised and Labour are wanting a review of the process, as they often do.  At this point odds must be stacked for the government and First will sign the contract today. Although it does look like there is some risk that First might hand back the keys before the contract is up.  Sometimes you have to take a risk and perhaps the cash guarantees are sufficient to cover it. The government hasn’t really answered Richard Bransons concern and perhaps that is just tough.

High Speed Rail seems to be proceeding according to a plan although councils along the way are creating opposition depending on whether they want to preserve the status quo, NIMBY’s, or want their area to have a station. It’s hard to imagine that the line won’t go ahead now as greater connectivity over medium distance is becoming the next step in human development all over the world. Although politically it is uncomfortable for the mainly Conservative MPs in the Chilterns.

More runways are needed in South East England. It’s been obvious for years that operating an airport at 97% capacity  is a recipe for disaster but all parties now oppose expanding Heathrow.  As more destinations in Asia are required it seems there is no scope to increase the number of flights, so Paris and Amsterdam are taking the business. Surprisingly Tim Yeo an established Conservative MP has asked the Prime Minister if he is a man or a mouse and to change his stance to support a third runway. Interesting choice of words ‘a man or a mouse’.  Sounds like the point isn’t to do with the runway but an arrow fired to test the Prime Ministers credibility and to up the stakes.  The alternative offered by Boris Johnson of an estuary airport to stop traffic flying over London is an interesting idea but surely a non-starter as it would change the whole pattern of growth in London, take too long, and make the airport less accessible from the rest of the UK.  Why a third runway can’t be built quite a long way from Heathrow and linked by fast transport has never been explained. Seems obvious that something needs to be done.

On motorway speed limits surely the 80mph is a distraction. The first extra death will be used as a demonstration of the folly. Then they say it will be more rigorously enforced so we’ll be back to the years of police laser guns everywhere.  Same as the 20mph zones, they are good in small streets but councils as usual are misusing the limit and making long stretches of roads 20mph.  It seems most people are driving at about 27mph, although if they aren’t doing 35 or 40 then maybe that’s enough.

It would be a treat if the government could make some clean decisions where the opposition can’t create an image of uncertainty. Yet perhaps in modern days it isn’t possible for a government to prevent other ideas taking hold. The last government had the same problem. There are so many outlets where people can gather on-line to create a sense of opposition and opponents always shout loudest while the silent majority just nod.

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High Speed Rail looks like being approved

HS2 the high speed rail link between London, Birmingham, Manchester and Leeds looks like it will be approved next week. As usual the rest of the UK will be waiting for investment in London rail to peak before work begins.  In reality this is a continuation of construction investment in infrastructure that seems will continue into the far distant future.

After HS2 is complete which is in about 15 years there will no doubt be links to Scotland to be considered. Although extending the line to Newcastle along the east coast is reaching into less densely populated areas and it might not have the traffic to make it worthwhile.

The smaller cities to the west such as Bristol, Plymouth, Cardiff would never justify such expenditure and Bristol already has a very fast straight line to London.

In some ways it could be said a single line from London to Birmingham then Manchester and Leeds would be the most densely used.  Yet the planned spur bringing Sheffield, Nottingham and Derby into the route gives it wider reach.

The route to Scotland via Preston which has always been a major line looks like it might be downgraded by remaining a ‘classic’ line which is unfortunate as our area would welcome such a line. In particular the line to Heathrow would be of benefit cutting out flying from Manchester for connections. It would also be expected that being able to reach here or London in  just over an hour could transform what people consider a day trip.

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Referendum 2011: Alternative Voting System

The government is expected to announce, on Tuesday, a referendum on using the Alternative Voting System.  This is a key part of the Coalition agreement although not as far as the Proportional Representation System the LibDems want.

At the moment there are a number of points that need clarifying and then there are political differences that will continue to the end. The main positions being that basically the LibDems favour this but the bigger parties aren’t keen.  In fact the Conservatives are quite anti.

Then there is the early / late date. The LibDems want it early to get something out of the coalition because some are feeling a bit tender about it. The Conservatives want it late as it keeps the LibDems on-side longer.

The actual date: It is proposed to hold it on the same date as local and Scottish / Welsh elections as it makes it easier for voters. On the other hand it makes it more complicated and could cause confusion. Also not everywhere has an election on that date so some places will only have a referendum vote which might skew turn-out.

Also there is the threshold to be established. The threshold to pass a change in a referendum could be set to a minimum number of voters that would make it most unlikely to pass.

Another change in the Conservative manifesto was to reduce the number of MP’s.  Labour are calling this Gerrymandering or manipulation of boundaries to your own advantage. Conveniently forgetting that for the last 40 years Labour MP’s have had far smaller seats than other parties and are over-represented.

In political terms the Labour Party can sense that if the LibDems don’t win this referendum they are going to be very unhappy. So they have a motive to spoil it regardless of whether their own manifesto said reform of the voting system was a priority.  Reminds me of the EU referendum in the 1970’s when Labour supported joining until the Conservatives actually were the ones who put us in. Then they invented spurious reasons to oppose the government for party political reasons rather than what was best for the country.

At some point maybe we’ll get a crash course in Alternative Voting.  Seems like you have to prioritise your favourite politicians and I’d think that beyond many voters.

Alternative Voting seems like a good scheme. It keeps MP’s linked to seats.  Gives MP’s a mandate to always say they represent more than half their voters.  Not too concerned about how many MP’s there are although having equally sized seats sounds a good idea.

In the referendum it would be better to seperate it from other elections to give everywhere an equal chance. Then that a turn out of say 25% might be expected and a straight majority will win.  No vote, no say.

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Chloride and Tate & Lyle going foreign

More British names transferring overseas. Chloride look certain to be taken over by rival Emerson, a US company.  While Tate & Lyle are selling their sugar and syrup business to rival Domino, a US company.

Names are never lost, they can lie dormant and re-appear. The history and pedigree goes. Perhaps that gets diluted anyway as shares are often owned all over the world.

The most ominous thing that is lost is that control moves overseas, investment and closure decisions are made overseas.  The top jobs move overseas. These are worse features than losing the pedigree.

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New Manufacturing Jobs Announced

After bad news in chocolate and steel manufacturing some good news in cars and nuclear engineering. Most of it with the help of government loans.

Nissan announced that their new electrically powered car, the Nissan Leaf, will be produced in Sunderland from 2013. Up to 50,000 cars a year will be made.  Nissan stated that the UK commitment to providing the infrastructure and education to operate these cars helped the decision.  The North East has agreed to fit 13,000 charging points and London 25,000. Also a novel leasing arrangement for batteries will ease the cost of ownership and another plus the batteries will be made in Sunderland as well.  Photographs of the car look quite smart with nothing to make it look different. Ironically the ‘green’ car will be produced next to the Juke urban off-roader which doesn’t sound quite as green.

Ford announced about £1.5bn investment in new efficient engine R&D and manufacturing in the UK.  A significant portion of the money will be loans from the UK Automotive Assistance Programme and the EU. Ford will test 15 electric vehicles as well as work on low carbon engines.  Ford produce 25% of their world supply of engines in the UK.

Sheffield Forgemasters received government loan support to make a 15,000 tonne forging press, making the company one of two companies in the world capable of making specific nuclear components. The government said the UK can produce 50% of the parts for a nuclear power station and the investment will take it to 70%. The government is also to support up to 1000 apprentice places a year in the nuclear industry.

It is a curious business the offering of loans to keep manufacturing in a country. Subsidising has long been illegal in the EU. However such large scale investment is often only possible with government assistance. Vice versa governments often say that infrastructure projects, for such as energy, cannot be afforded without industrial investment.  Does one balance the other out or is it just convenient to make the best of both worlds. No doubt a company has to get the best deal it can so an existing plant must count for something and make the loan required less than it would be from a place without a plant or who didn’t have other incentives to offer such as car power point infrastructure. We can only welcome this as good news.

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BBC cuts

The BBC announced some changes yesterday with a view to focussing more on quality programming and keeping the license fee stable.  Three headline changes are the closure of Radio 6, Asian Network and a reduction in the website.

The BBC is one of Britains premier institutions but there can be no doubt that it has expanded far too broadly for too long and somehow been allowed to get away with it.  My own opinion is that the license fee should be capped at £120 for the next 10 years. The excellence of the BBC should be unharmed by this as it’s cost increases are more related to excessive air time given to fringe programming and apparant over representation like teams from different channels at the same event.

With facilities like the iPlayer it should be possible to programme less time and enable it to be watched or heard when required.

At the moment Radio 6 is getting the most support against closure,  and I admit to never having heard it. From what I’ve read it is claimed new bands are given an opportunity on this station. Yet watching the Brits this year I didn’t hear any new bands – Kasabian, Robbie Williams and Liam Gallagher got the British headlines. It seems that whatever they do in the USA is producing better new acts. No British world talent has been found for a few years, Arctic Monkeys come to mind and Lilly Allen seems well known.

I will admit to being a fan of the BBC and fortunately as it is a charge on every household its charges are able to be kept down to what appears quite cheap when compared with other stations.  Although when I add it to my other subscriptions and the broadband, telephone and mobile charges my bills for communication become large.  Also there is a conundrum that if the BBC focusses on too much quality it might lose the justification for a compulsory charge as its appeal will be too limited.

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Fit for purpose?

Time of year to be thinking about getting over Christmas. Wonder why we buy so much chocolate at Christmas. My own worry is more about clogging up the veins as weight isn’t much of a problem.  I know I can put on weight like in my twenties, mainly drinking weight and when I stopped going to the pub 3 to 4 times a week I lost weight.

Ten years ago I joined a gym and did it on a monthly payment scheme because I thought I wouldn’t stay.  Yet I’m still there and in general go about 6 times a month. In the 10 years so many people have joined and lasted a couple of months and never to be seen again. They’re all convinced they’ll stay and some have told me their plans but soon fallen away.

My own experience in many activities is to keep it up you need a regular schedule that says, like, on Tuesday at 6pm I’ll be there. I found that doesn’t work for me at the gym. Other things come along, like you can’t eat first then go,  don’t want to do some heavy work and then go, don’t want to go to dig the garden get dirty and have a shower then go.  All I can recommend is to say that you will go at least once a week and try to fit in another so you do at least 6 in the month.

The other aspect is making a start after years of doing nothing.  Going to work and bragging you ran for 8 minutes at 8kph on the flat on a treadmill.  They must have thought me mad. Now I can run for ages but it took time and came in steps. Suddenly found I could up the speed and it felt great. Wish I were younger, need to keep the heart at a faily low level at my age, there’s a formula, and that limits my speed a lot.    I don’t do the other cardio-machines, like the step, bike, rotex or rowing  they give me pains where I don’t want them. Running at a slowish speed and a bit of stretching keeps me good and I can feel it every day.

Running for up to 30 minutes on the treadmill is more than most people want to do, and I did once have some girls loudly making comments about how boring that must be. You can watch TV and listen to music but I tend to think about things I want to do and if I want to give up, tell myself  just do another 5 minutes. How often can you fool yourself with this 5 minutes. I’ve done it loads of times. Near the end of the 5 minutes you’re thinking good nearly done but with seconds to go you say I’m fine I can manage another 5. Seems to work for me, must be mad.

Then there are the weights.  Doing the heavy stuff doesn’t appeal, 10 years on the weight-machines, using chrome dumb-bells (seem to be for ladies) and the mats (who’d have thought I do that after bad school mats and a cruel teacher). Never graduated to the barbell. With the number of reps building up the total the Technogym computer system at our gym tells me 10,000kg spread over different muscle groups is a good session for me along with 5km on the treadmill.

So I’d recommend finding a fitness centre and not being over ambitious or too enthusiastic, play it cool and keep going for the long term.

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Overseas Trains

Rail Magazine noted Britains first Class 70 freight loco’s landed in the UK from the USA. Not long ago the first Class 90’s, named Javelin for high speed lines in Kent came in from Japan. Pendolino’s from Italy.  Some Eurostars from France.

We exported some British made 30 year old Class 87’s to Bulgaria.

Seems like everyone is building loco’s except the UK. This is fairly typical of UK manufacturing yet it is said we are the 6th biggest manufacturer in the World.

The philosophy of getting the best deal and using the saving elsewhere, not spending on development that might not be recovered and spending that elsewhere sounds admirable.  Yet there is a certain shallowness about it.

It is often said that governments don’t make the best industrial investment decisions and after a number of notable bad decisions it seems the government totally handed over to the market.

Strictly speaking the government can’t be seen to be making decisions based on national criteria although it seems to be unquestioned that other countries have home made railways and their car industries miraculously continue despite products of dubious quality.

It also seems the days of militant trade unions have gone and now British workers work very hard for foreign owners.  British companies were unable to take benefit of this new reality, possibly because there was always a feeling the government would bail them out.

It wouldn’t be too difficult for the government to give a contract to a British company. The high speed train programme of £30bn, how much of this is for locomotives. How difficult would it be to establish a UK loco and engine manufacturing capability in a company such as GKN with some training thrown in via local colleges and technology demonstration. Perhaps a step in rail technology is due as the new high speed rail extension will take 15 years to bring on stream.  The government left the market to go its way and has spent unprecedented amounts that make the inputs to British Leyland look like loose change. A fraction of that spent on technology would have provided a tangible output, less imports and potential exports,  less inequality of employee salaries, and employment of a more multi-ability workforce.

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Opening Post

Welcome to the new blog that is to bring an opinion on topical events as viewed from north west England. The opinions probably won’t be typical but they will be topical.

No axes to grind, only a few maybe, but no-one is paying me to do this.

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